2014 Tour de France Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21

Distance: 137.5 km

Type: Flat

End Time: 1:11 PM ET

Just hours before the 2014 Tour de France concludes on the Champs-Élysées, the best riders in the women’s peloton will ride the same circuit in the inaugural La Course by Le Tour de France. Just like the Tour de France almost always ends in a bunch sprint, La Course should do so as well. It’s been nine years since, who else, Alexandre Vinokourov managed to steal a victory from the sprinters in 2005. For a second year running the finishing time has been pushed back to the evening, but not as late as last year. The sprint on the Champs-Élysées is the unofficial sprinters World Championships. It’s the single most sought after stage victory in the sport of cycling.

As is tradition, the beginning of the day is largely ceremonial and will be ridden at a pedestrian pace. Vincenzo Nibali and his team Astana teammates will enjoy a glass of champagne to celebrate their victory while the rest of the peloton celebrates making it to Paris. There’s a category 4 climb after 30 kilometers but it’s nothing more than a place for Rafal Majka to show off his Polka Dot Jersey.

After 83 kilometers the riders hit the famous avenue and the race will begin. The peloton will complete 8 laps on the Champs-Élysées. Each year a veteran in his final Tour is allowed to lead the peloton onto the cobbles of the Champs and it will probably be Jens Voigt this year. Like every year the only noteworthy thing about the finish is the right and left hand sweeping bends with 550 meters to go. Last year Marcel Kittel won from the position we had seen Mark Cavendish be in for 4 consecutive years. Kittel was second position behind the wheel of his lead-out man Koen de Kort going around the final right hand turn. (This year Veelers is his lead-out man).

The Favorites

***** Kittel

**** Greipel, Kristoff

*** Sagan, Demare, Coquard

** Bennati, Renshaw

* Martin

Marcel Kittel is the undisputed sprint king in the world right now and the winner in Paris 12 months ago. Giant-Shimano have not been organized in the last two sprints but they shouldn’t have a problem today. On stages 15 and 19 the sprint teams had to negotiate with rain and a tricky final. That won’t be the case today. Giant-Shimano have the best lead-out team in the world and if they can just hit the front with 2 km to go and place Kittel second wheel leading into the final turn, he won’t be beaten.

Andre Greipel has to freelance since the loss of Greg Henderson and this doesn’t suit him at all. The big German has always relied on a strong lead-out and so far Lotto-Belisol have not got it right once.

Alexander Kristoff is another challenger to Kittel today. Believe it or not Kristoff is trying to match Kittel’s amount of stage wins today. He’s proven once again he is very fresh at the end of a long hard Grand Tour. He doesn’t have to the lead-out Kittel does and it’s hard to see him winning a pure bunch sprint. Kristoff is the man to beat in a reduced field sprint.

Peter Sagan has one final chance at a stage win. He can’t match the speed of Kittel, Greipel and Kristoff so it’s hard to envision him winning. Yet another top 5 finish looks likely. Sagan has already won the Green Jersey and just needs finish the stage to stand on the podium for a third year in a row. Only one Green Jersey winner hasn’t stood on the podium in Paris. That would be the erratic sprinter Djamolidine Abdoujaparov, who spectacularly crashed into the barrier in 1991 and had to be taken to the hospital.

Demare, Coquard, Renshaw, Bennati will all vie for the placings.

At the end of the day the Champs-Élysées is such a wide road that it’s impossible to get boxed in. No one should be able to match the speed of Kittel.

Top 5: Kittel, Greipel, Coquard, Kristoff, Sagan.

My Pick: Marcel Kittel to win the stage

Recommended bets (bet365)

Marcel Kittel to win the stage -150

Coquard +138 to beat Renshaw -188

Pierre Rolland -120 to beat Frank Schleck -120