Three category 1 climbs packed inside an incredible short 101 kilometers (!) from Saint-Girons to Foix on Bastille Day is bound to produce some fireworks.
Stage 12 saw Chris Froome crack on the upper slopes of the Peyragudes. It’s a rarity for Froome is in Tour de France career and his career overall, although we have seen it before in the likes of the Dauphine and the Vuelta. How he will respond is the key, was it just one bad day or an indication his form isn’t there?
The green jersey sprint point comes after just 13.5 kilometers so that will be a fun watch at the beginning. Then the climbing begins and it’s either up or down all the way to the line.
On such a remarkably short stage, I expect the days winners to have won it mentally rather than physically. It’s tough to tell how this one will play out. The battle for the breakaway will be fierce, particularly with Frenchman racing on their national holiday. Warren Barguil will look to increase his KOM lead and can be expected to be joined by similar names from yesterday.
Astana’s Fabio Aru is the new maillot jaune by 6 seconds but given the final individual time trial looms, Chris Froome is still basically the virtual yellow jersey. I don’t expect team strategies to change much (Sky probably won’t send someone in the break).
Stage 12’s winner Romain Bardet is one of the best descenders in the world but the descents don’t look too technical so the jury’s still out on whether the downhill has a big impact in this one. The same can be said for Froome.
Given the short stage I lean towards the GC riders battling it out for the stage win. Froome has been known to have an underrated sprint and with bonus seconds to the winner the yellow jersey could change hands were Froome to beat Aru to the line. The question now is can Aru hold on to yellow? With Fuglsang injuries his team is weakened and Sky are still strong.
There was a mini-controversy within Team Sky as Landa rode away from Froome, Landa looks quite strong I could see him given license to go for the win here. Time gaps won’t be large, most likely a small elite group comes to the line together and sprints it out for the win. Someone (Froome/Bardet) will probably try to go mental on the descent.
ESPN Pick: Fabio Aru
Stage 13 bets
Dan Martin stage winner +800
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