The Tour de France enters the Alps with the first of two hard days which will go a long way into determining the races final general classification. If you remember my stage 1 preview, I said this would be the most open Tour de France in recent years. In fact, it is the tightest in Tour history. Chris Froome holds just an 18 second advantage over Fabio Aru, 23 seconds on Romain Bardet, and 29 seconds on Rigoberto Uran.
What you can expect here is Team Sunweb to drive the pace from the opening gun and look for Michael Matthews and Warren Barguil to jump in the break and sweep up the intermediate sprint and king of the mountains points. Team Sunweb lead in both of those categories.
The GC battle really won’t start until the 1-2 punch of the Col du Télégraphe and the famous Col du Galibier, a wall of about 30 kilometers of climbing. From there it’s 28 kilometers of descent (into a headwind) to the finish line in Serre-Chevalie.
The consensus is someone will need to be around 1 minute ahead of Froome going into the time trial to have a shot at beating him. Bardet has probably attacked the most from the GC group and I expect him to attack on the downhill section between the two climbs. Bardet has the best shot to drop Froome. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him in yellow at the day’s end. Meanwhile, Fabio Aru and Rigoberto Uran don’t have much for team support so I don’t see them trying something too early here (Uran is the better time trialist). Team Sky will control the peloton, using Landa as watch dog to stop any early attacks. Landa is maybe the best climber in the peloton right now and won’t be at Team Sky for long, but I see him following team orders here. His teammate Chris Froome doesn’t need to be aggressive on this stage and isn’t on top form, but he likes winning stages. It’s worth remembering these alpine climbs are long and steady different from the short and punchy Pyrenean climbs. Froome likes these.
A strong break should form perhaps including Alberto Contador and Nairo Quintana. Whether is makes it to the finish will depend on the racing behind. If it doesn’t a GC group will most likely roll to the line together.
ESPN Streak: No: Chris Froome doesn’t Finish Top 2
Stage 17 bets
Romain Bardet stage winner +800
Simon Yates stage winner +2500
Warren Barguil to beat Damiano Caruso -200
Cycling 